Kimco Realty Corp. (KIM)
Q3 2007 Earnings Call
October 26, 2007 10:00 am ET
Executives
Barbara Pooley - Vice President of Investor Relations
Milton Cooper - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Dave Henry - Chief Investment Officer
Mike Flynn - President and Vice Chairman
Mike Pappagallo - Chief Financial Officer
David Lukes - Executive Vice President
Analysts
Ambika - Citigroup
Jay Habermann - Goldman Sachs
Christine McElroy - Banc of America Securities
Jeff Donnelly - Wachovia Securities
Craig Schmidt - Merrill Lynch
Matt Ostrower - Morgan Stanley
Michael Gorman - Credit Suisse
Michael Mueller - JPMorgan
David Harris - Lehman Brothers
Lou Taylor - Deutsche Bank
David Fick - Stifel Nicolaus
Scott O’Donnell - MetLife
Presentation
Operator
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. And welcome to the
KIMCO’s Third Quarter Earnings Conference Call. Please be aware today’s
conference is being recorded. As a reminder, all lines are muted to prevent
background noise. After the speakers’ remarks there be a formal
question-and-answer session (Operator Instructions).
At this time it is my pleasure to introduce today’s speaker
Mr. Barbara Pooley.
Barbara Pooley
Thank you. Thank you all joining third quarter KIMCO
earnings call. With me this morning are Milton Cooper, Chairman and Chief
Executive Officer; Dave Henry, Chief Investment Officer, Mike Flynn, President
and Vice Chairman; Mike Pappagallo, Chief Financial Officer; and David Lukes,
Executive Vice President.
Several other executives are also available to take your
questions at the conclusion of our prepared remark. As a reminder, statements
made during the course of this call represent the company and management’s
hope, intension, beliefs, expectations or projections of the future, which are
forward-looking statements.
It is important note that the company’s actual results could
differ materially from those projected in such forward-looking statements.
Information concerning factors that could cause actual results to differ materially
from those forward-looking statements is contained in the company’s SEC
filings.
During this presentation, management may make reference to
certain non-GAAP financial measures that we believe help investors better
understand KIMCO’s operating results. Examples include, but are not limited to
operation in net operating income.
Reconciliation of these non-GAAP financial are also
available on our website. Finally, during the Q&A portion of the call we
request that you respect the limit of two questions with appropriate follow-up
so all of our callers have an opportunity to speak with management. Feel free
to return to the queue if you have additional questions.
I’ll now turn the call over to Mike Pappagallo.
Mike Pappagallo
Thank you Barbara and good morning. It certainly has been an
eventful three months in the market, since our last earnings report. Perhaps we
have hope that a few billion dollars writedowns by financial institutions and
an accommodating fed will clear the decks and bring a degree of business as
usual back into real estate, sales and financing market.
But at this point, that’s probably is wishful thinking as
there still appear to be more questions than answers including those
surrounding the health of the consumer.
For KIMCO, there were three major themes for the past
quarter. First, building as much liquidity and capital availability as
possible. Focusing on the blocking and tackling of leasing and portfolio
management, and also tempering our acquisition pace in light of more
opportunistic transaction that may be available in the future.
The liquidity action took various forms, the most
significant being the renewal of our credit facility to renew four-year terms
with a one-year extension option, and upsizing it from $850 million to $1.5
billion.
Despite turbulent markets, we were encouraged by the
commitments provided by so many of our relationship banks, such that we were
able to obtain commitments of almost $2 million before we reduced it to the
desired level.
And a reduction in the spread pricing to a level of 37.5
basis points over LIBOR plus a 12.5% facility fee, and increase the covenants
flexibility was also a positive in light of what is going on in the markets.
We also issued a new series of preferred stock for $460
million, which allowed us to race a more permanent form of capital to further
increase balance sheet flexibility without issues common shares.
We also recashed our existing Canadian dollar credit
facility to include a U.S. dollar borrowing option, and in Mexico we’re in the
processing of increasing our peso facility and have begun to place U.S.-style
non-recourse financing on our complete Mexico developing project to help
recycle capital.
Overall we continue to position the balance sheet to capture
opportunities in changing markets. With respect to the third quarter operating
results, FFO per share of $0.57 were $0.02 higher than consensus, and $0.01
above last year’s third quarter.
As you are aware we captured a significant portion of our
transactional or related activity in the first half of the year, including a
significant Albertson’s distribution as well as large profits from the
monetization our preferred equity position in Canadian self-storage and our
mixed-use asset in Lower Manhattan.
This resulted in a relatively small quarter-over-quarter
increase this go-around, but on year-to-date basis FFO per share is up 26% to
$2.50. We have also tightened the full year guidance range to $2.56 to $2.59,
which represents a fourth quarter range of between $0.50 to $0.53, and the
factors include timing on merchant building sales currently under contract as
well as a few other transactional items schedule for the last couple of months.
Looking past the quarterly variation, the portfolio metrics
once again points a solid execution on asset management strategies. Portfolio
fundamentals remain intact as evidence by another increase in occupancy to
96.2%; same-site net operating income growth of 4.2%, spreads on new leases of
17%, and an overall increase of 12% once factoring in options and renewals. And
while there is real concern about the health of the consumer from the stress in
the housing market, we believe that our centers are well positioned to
withstand these issues, particularly in California and Florida, the two states
most closely associated with the subprime mortgage mess.
While those states have experienced declines in the value of
housing, the resiliency of our property type, primarily focused on consumer
essentials, and the strong demographics of our locations will mitigate any
potential issues on occupancy or rental rates.
As I noted earlier, we have not been as aggressive on
pricing in the acquisition market, which has slowed the number of transactions
closed into our investment vehicles. That said, our management business remains
on solid footing, and Dave will highlight some of the initiatives to respond to
the changing landscape.
Despite the origination slowdown, the business plans of the
existing asset base continue to move forward. Two properties were sold out of
the GE venture, one of which was acquired by the KIMCO-SEB partnership, and
those sales generated an additional $6.2 million of promote income to KIMCO.
We also continued the disposal of selected assets from the
former Pan Pacific portfolio, with six assets sold in the quarter netting to
about $110 million. KIMCO Developers sold a completed Phase II of a project in
Texas, as well as a land plan in Arizona during the quarter, and is well on the
way to delivering approximately $25 million in post-tax gains for 2007.
The operating businesses of KIMCO Capital Services did not
experience any large single transactional items in the quarter. Although, we
did receive additional distributions from the Albertson’s investment, as well
as contributions from the recent investments in the extended-stay hotel
portfolio and our structured financing of a net lease portfolio with U.S.
realty advisors.
Insofar as providing guidance for 2008 earnings per share or
FFO per share, I would much prefer to wait a bit longer to flush out timing and
extent of transaction volumes, as well as to account for any uncertainties
surrounding the consumer, but if I didn’t say anything, you might read too much
into it.
So for now, I’m providing an FFO range between $2.70 to
$2.78. Just for perspective, I’d like to point out that the midpoint of that
range tracks ahead of the average annual 10% growth rate we rolled out during
our investor day in 2006, with a target of $3.50 a share by 2011. With that,
I’ll turn it over the Dave.
Dave Henry
Thanks, Mike. As you mentioned, I think all of us in the
REIT world have had a very interesting third quarter. For KIMCO, despite the
bumpy ride, we continued to make excellent investments in a wide variety of new
business activities. For our listeners’ consideration and review, I would like
to highlight the following this morning.
Number one, Brazil. I’m pleased to report that we have
formally expanded our presence in South America by signing a joint venture
agreement with real estate partner, SA, a Brazilian shopping center developer
based in Sao Paulo, Brazil. The company developed small neighborhood shopping
centers in the Sao Paulo market. The company had a strong pipeline of
neighborhood shopping centers, and we anticipate closing on our very first
project together in December.
The planned KIMCO REP shopping center is located in
Valinhos, a city located 40 minutes north of Sao Paulo, and will contain a
total of 135,000 square feet. In Brazil, we plan to focus on acquiring and
developing small neighborhood retail properties rather than developing or
building large high-end enclosed malls.
Brazil, with a population of 186 million people, is the
world’s tenth largest economy and is projected to become the fifth largest economy
in the world by 2050. With a record trade surplus in 2006, the largest foreign
direct investment in Latin America, 3% inflation rate, a stable currency, and a
growing middle class, Brazil represents an attractive long-term investment
opportunity for KIMCO.
Wal-Mart, McDonald’s and other American retailers are
focusing on growing their presence in Brazil, and we hope to join many of our
existing tenants as they expand into Brazil.
Number two, net lease portfolio. In a signature-structured
participating loan transaction this quarter, KIMCO invested approximately $78
million, giving us a 50% residual position in a large portfolio of 403 net
leased properties in 33 states. The portfolio is divided into 30 master leased
pools of properties with each pool leased to a single corporate credit,
collateralized by all of the assets in the pool.
The properties represent a diverse collection of
free-standing restaurants under 20 different brands and represent a very
attractive long-term investment for KIMCO due to the low market rents, low
investment per square foot, substantial amortization under the existing
mortgage loans, and generally strong corporate guarantors. As the leases expire
over time, we believe there will be substantial opportunity to create additional
value in this very large portfolio of more than 400 net leased properties.
Number 3, KIMCO Mexico retail land and development fund.
During the quarter we successfully closed and upsized twice our previously
announced Mexico retail land and development fund. The fund represents a new
product for KIMCO in that it is a fully discretionary commingled fund of $324
million.
The fund will acquire retail sites in Mexico, which are
targeted for future expansion by large U.S. and Mexican retail tenants. These land
parcels, which will either be developed within the fund or sold to third
parties over a three to seven-year period will be selected by KIMCO’s operating
partners or retail anchor tenants in Mexico.
Land which is planned for future development rather than
immediate development is comparatively inexpensive in Mexico, and we believe
that KIMCO and the fund investors will achieve attractive returns through this
investment vehicle.
Institutional investors committed to our fund include New
York common, ABP, Case Depo (ph), GE Real Estate, Northwestern Mutual and
Wellington Management. Building on the success of the Mexican fund, we are
introducing a $250 million U.S. land fund, which will be jointly sponsored by
KIMCO and the Rockefeller Group.
Combining forces, KIMCO and the Rockefeller Group will be
able to acquire large mixed-use sites and leverage KIMCO’s expertise in retail
development, and the Rockefeller Group’s experience in office and industrial
properties.
The fund will target land and specific selected markets
where either KIMCO or the Rockefeller Group have a strong track record. These
markets include Florida, California, Arizona, New Jersey and Texas. The
Rockefeller Group has an 80-year history of developing commercial real estate
and is wholly-owned by Mitsubishi Estate, one of the world’s largest real
estate companies.
We are very pleased to be working with them on this new
fund. Overall, we believe the growth of our institutional asset management
business will be based on delivery of new joint venture and commingled fund
products to meet the real estate objectives of a growing list of institutional
clients.
In 2008, we plan to introduce a new fund for South America
retail properties, and a New York urban investment and development fund. We have
reached agreement with UBS Wealth Management, a valued existing institutional
client, to form a $300 million joint venture to acquire core stabilized retail
properties in Canada.
All of these areas represent growing sources of investment
opportunities for KIMCO with attractive yields for our clients and our
partners. Now I would like to turn to Milton for his comments and thoughts.
Milton Cooper
Thanks, Dave. George Bernard Shaw once said, when I was
young and foolish, I thought that money was everything, and now that I’m older
and wiser, I know it is. Two weeks ago, Mike Flynn, Dave Henry, Mike
Pappagallo, David Lukes and I met in an off-site strategy session in a
Westchester Hotel conference room, and we agreed with George Bernard Shaw.
Our job is to deliver the money to our shareholders and our
people, and since our shareholders do not receive large annual dividends, and
since no one at KIMCO receives large cash salary, the money has to be in the
form of a growing share price. Now the fact that since our IPO, we have doubled
the price of our shares every five years is history. What do we do from here?
Our company has never, never, ever accepted the status quo.
Innovation is our mantra. And so our focus is to chart the course for future
double-digit growth over time, and here is our road map. One, our shopping
center portfolio. We constantly review each asset with the following in mind.
Where can we creatively add value? Is there growth in cash flow from the asset?
Some of our centers have substantial built-in growth.
Shopping centers that were built in the ’60s and the ’70s had then prevailing
rents under leases that are to expire within 10 years. Permit me to illustrate.
We own a 212,000-square-foot shopping center in Staten Island.
A lease for 100,000 square feet was entered into in 1970
under which the tenant paid an annual rent of $3 per square foot, gross. That
was the then-market. New leases for smaller tenants are in the mid-40s per
square foot. The 100,000-square-foot lease expires in 2011, and our estimate is
that the rental value is at least $30 per square foot.
Now, most of our income streams are generated from
properties in urban areas, and those that were developed in the ’60s, ’70s, and
’80s are in mature suburbs that do not have land for new housing and are not as
vulnerable to the slowdown in new-home construction. It is my view that
shopping centers with long-term leases with below-market grants are superb
investments with bond-like characteristics that will attack investors worldwide
who seek safety in hard assets.
David Lukes refers to some of our centers as land banks that
are carried by our tenants’ rents until leases expire. Now, there are other
centers whose growth is more appropriate for an investor with a lower cost of
capital and a more patient time horizon. And these centers will be placed in a
joint venture with such institutions. And we will sell any center that we feel
may have risk.
Two, our global expansion. Our global expansion is designed
to deliver higher yields and diversify our risks from being completely
dependent on the U.S. dollar. Our first entry into the Canadian market was six
years ago. We were and continue to be very optimistic about real estate in
Canada. By the way, at the time of our initial investments, C$1 was equivalent
to $0.66. We now have interest in over 145 properties in Canada.
Mexico. We began our acquisitions in Mexico in 2002, thanks
to Dave, and we continue to believe that Mexico has good growth prospects. We
have interests in 127 properties and anticipate continued substantial returns.
We have interest in 21 developments that should come on stream by 2009. While
we are pleased with what we own, we recognize that there now is very large
demand to own real estate in Mexico, and as a result, we now are faced with
substantial competition.
Our timing in the past was good, but it will be more
difficult to create more opportunities in the future. And in addition to Canada
and Mexico, as you have heard, we are exploring and acting on additional
investments in Chile and Brazil.
Three, our institutional investment management business.
This is a growing business, and we are adding new institutional relationships
and new products. Dave has mentioned our land fund in Mexico, and our new joint
venture on a U.S. land fund.
Four, our development business. We have a solid development
business that has been consistent in its earnings. The contribution from our
development business is a little less than 5% of our EBITDA. We do have over 20
projects that should be completed between 2008 and 2010.
Five, KIMCO retail services. Retail services provides
financing and other services for retailers. Some examples are Montgomery Ward
designation rights transaction and our Venture Stores transaction. KIMCO Select
is, in essence, an opportunity fund that takes into account the underlying
value of real estate and leases. Some examples are the Albertson transaction
and the Frank’s Nursery transaction.
Six, preferred equity. Our preferred equity program
currently is approximately $465 million invested in over 260 properties. We
expect to realize approximately $200 million in residual profit participation
out of this portfolio.
Seven, our New York City, Boston and Philadelphia urban
projects. Patrick Flynn has headed up our effort to create value and profits
with selected investments in New York City, Boston and Philadelphia. During the
year, over $15 million of profits were generated out of the sale of two
Manhattan properties.
So, we believe that we can deliver the goods over time at a
combination of these buckets and any new bucket and opportunities that we may
be able to seize upon. Our view is that the times ahead will bring some pain to
the consumer, and there will be turbulence in the markets.
We have prepared for this cycle by keeping up balance sheet
and liquidity very, very strong. We have been through cycles before and have
always found that opportunities arise out of dislocation in the marketplace.
And with that, we would be delighted to entertain any questions.
Question-and-Answer Session
Operator
(Operator Instructions) And we’ll take our first question
from Jonathan Litt with Citigroup. Please go ahead.
Ambika - Citigroup
Hi, this is Ambika (ph)with John. Given the uncertainty on
when transaction volume will pick up, how should we think about that being
factored into 2008 guidance?
Mike Pappagallo
Ambika, this is Mike. I think historically we have looked at
transactions, separating it between core shopping center acquisitions and then
everything else. I think where we have a little struggle with visibility is
what form and structure these transactions are going to take.
In coming up with the preliminary guidance numbers that I
have provided, I am expecting somewhere over $1 billion of investment activity,
but that’s not necessarily going to be all of the core shopping center type
assets that you have seen us acquire over the past couple of years.
So that’s a generic assumption, volume assumption, but the
form and content of what business unit it falls in to, we have preferred
equity, our opportunity fund, some of the other funds that Dave has talked
about, that is to be determined.
Ambika - Citigroup
So given that is below your historical acquisition volumes
in the past couple of years, you would assume that that’s more of a
conservative target at this point that could be revised upwards if the market’s
transaction volume resumes.
Mike Pappagallo
Yes, that is true, and it has been pretty much the custom here
at this point in the year or before the year, to take a relatively conservative
view, because conditions do change, and you saw it over the past three or four
months on how dramatic the credit markets were impacted.
So we have a long-term business strategy. We have talked
about it often. We have clear objectives that Milton articulated, and strategy.
But we will continue to do is refine these assumptions set into those
components as the year proceeds.
Ambika - Citigroup
Okay. And could you give color on the marketable securities
gains in the quarter?
Mike Pappagallo
The 10 million is — 10 million for the quarter.
Ambika - Citigroup
Any breakdown on where that is coming from?
Mike Pappagallo
No, we generally don’t give a list of specific securities.
Ambika - Citigroup
Okay. Thank you.
Operator
And we’ll take our next question with Jay Habermann with
Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Jay Habermann - Goldman Sachs
Hey, good morning, everyone. Just, I guess, continuing on
the ‘08 guidance front, can you just comment, are you assuming any impact there
from Albertson’s. And, I guess, Mike, as well, since you did open the subject,
can you talk about same-store NOI growth assumptions?
Mike Pappagallo
With respect to Albertson’s, I have more of a generic
assumption as it relates to our group of businesses in KIMCO Capital Services,
which is preferred equity, KIMCO Select, and Retailer Services and piecing
those together. And in looking at those three businesses, if you tally up the
2007 contribution, or expected contribution, it’s probably about $225 million
worth of transaction and flow within those three components.
And we’re expecting $30 million or so increase in our
original business plan for those three businesses together. So it’s going to
come from a variety of sources as it has traditionally, and some of it will be
Albertson’s, but at this point we don’t have an exact number, because there are
a series of financing and strategy at the Albertson’s level that haven’t been
finalized and are subject to market conditions. So, Jay, that’s how I look at
the guidance in terms of taking the three businesses together, understanding
their aggregate profitability, and then planning off of that larger base as we
go into next year.
Jay Habermann - Goldman Sachs
Great. Thanks. And just one follow-up, I guess, for Milton,
in terms of the recent disruptions in the credit markets. Can you just comment
a bit on outlook for distressed store closings? Have you seen any growing signs
that might make you more nervous than before?
Milton Cooper
Nothing could make me more nervous than before. No, we
continue to worry about the consumer and there are certain retailers that we
believe may have issues in ‘08, but we really, David, couldn’t identify them.
Mike Pappagallo
Jay, I just wanted to circle back. You also asked on the
same-store, we’re forecasting 4%, and that’s based on our ground-up budget
process that we just completed with respect to our core shopping centers.
Jay Habermann - Goldman Sachs
Okay. Thank you.
Operator
And we’ll take our next question with Christine McElroy with
Banc of America Securities. Please go ahead.
Christine McElroy - Banc of America Securities
Hi, good morning. If you look at over the next few years at
your expectations for future supply growth for shopping centers, would you say
it’s coming at all in the new financing environment given that it has become
more difficult for smaller developers to obtain financing?
And does this have any impact at all on your expected yields
for projects in your future pipeline, if overall supply growth declines?
Dave Henry
It’s still early to tell, I think. The credit crunch is
relatively short-lived at this point. If it continues, I would agree with your
promise that smaller developers will have more difficulty.
Plus if Jerry is on the line, he can comment, as well, but
the projects themselves these days are much larger and take much longer to get
through entitlements and the zoning process, so retail in general is done on a
pre-leased basis. Speck projects are not generally done to any large degree.
Jerry Friedman
Dave, this is Jerry. I would agree with you. I would also
state that if the credit crunch does continue, it gives greater opportunity for
KIMCO to take over, at a later stage, those projects from smaller developers.
Christine McElroy - Banc of America
Securities
Okay. Great. And then just a follow-up on Ambica’s question
with regard to becoming more aggressive on acquisitions. What types of changes
in the private market are you looking for?
When we should expect you to become more aggressive whether
it’s pricing changes or more stability or different types of opportunities?
Dave Henry
Well, I think we, like others, are being careful today.
We’re watching with interest. We’re in the market every day. It’s still
competitive for Class A properties, which our investors want.
The bid/ask has widened a bit, and there’s been retrading
going on and the debt markets, as you know, have been a bit dicey. So our
acquisitions people are in the market every day. We continue to lose deals on
occasion, which indicate to us that the market is still competitive for the
very best properties.
Cap rates have moved around a little bit. But we’re not
exactly sure where they are settling. So, at this point, we’re trying to be
careful. But one way or another, it will settle out in due course, and KIMCO
will continue to see opportunities and we will continue to team with our
institutional partners to grow our portfolio.
Christine McElroy - Banc of America
Securities
Great. Thank you so much.
Operator
And we’ll take our next question with Jeff Donnelly with
Wachovia Securities. Please go ahead.
Jeff Donnelly - Wachovia Securities
Good morning, guys. Mike, maybe just another way of asking
about your same-store NOI growth expectation for 2008, with your occupancy in
an all-time high and retail, or appetite for your store opening, I guess, is
relatively softer than it was perhaps a year ago.
What leads you guys to be so confidant that rate growth
would be this robust now? You can argue that perhaps most aggressively seen is
KIMCO being NOI growth in sometime.
Mike Pappagallo
I think its consequence, Jeff, of many of the rollovers that
we’re seeing in terms of our projects, the ongoing programs and redevelopment
projects that David and his team have underway. Because it’s not, your point is
valid.
It’s really not going to be driven by occupancy. It’s going
to be driven more by active management, rent bumps, step-ups and the programs
we have got underway. That really is the short answer.
When we think about the same-store growth, part of that
analysis is that there are a — continues to be a group of properties that are
targeted for this position in our – in that base portfolio that are the
slower-growth assets.
And it’s incumbent upon us, as a strategy to move those out
directly or into funds that they are solid properties but just slow growth. So,
that’s really part of what makes up the number.
Dave Henry
I think, we’re particularly excited about some of the
redevelopment efforts, and the added resources that we have focused on the
redevelopment within our portfolio. With such a large portfolio, as you might
imagine, we have got some nice opportunities to create value in some of our
existing shopping centers. And that’s a great program, and that should help us
drive some nice value.
Jeff Donnelly - Wachovia Securities
Do you have a sense of what your NOI growth would be if you
excluded those assets that are benefiting from redevelopment capital?
Mike Pappagallo
I would pencil that — and every one — any one quarter,
there’s a different answer in terms of the relative impact, but as a general
matter, I would say it’s lifting the base rate from a 2.5% to 3% level up to
the 4%-plus level.
Jeff Donnelly - Wachovia Securities
One last question. Mike, I think you mentioned at the very
beginning of the call, that you guys were tempering your acquisition activity
to wait for larger, and I guess, implicitly, better deals that may come down
the road.
Are you seeing those opportunities now, or do you think they
are still a few quarters away? And who drives the decision within the funds
business to decide to buy assets or not? Is it KIMCO or its partners?
Milton Cooper
Well, there’s — we team with our partners in looking at
opportunities, especially large portfolios, either public or private. If you
recall over the last five or six years, KIMCO has bought five other public
companies, which has driven our assets under management very nicely.
I personally think, there will be some more M&A activity
coming up with smaller companies, either public or private. Those type of
opportunities do appeal to our institutional partners, because in one fell
swoop, they can get a large portfolio of properties.
That’s very difficult for Mike to factor into his numbers
when we’ll buy a small public company or something like that. So we also have a
one-off business that’s more predictable and Tom Caputo and his team have done
a nice job.
And we do have a pipeline of acquisition activities, but
it’s tougher to predict in this market, which ones will win at which kind of
cap rates and which investors have an aggressive appetite for that. But we’re
confident we’ll deliver Mike’s base case.
Jeff Donnelly - Wachovia Securities
Okay. Thanks, guys.
Operator
We’ll go next to Craig Schmidt with Merrill Lynch. Please go
ahead, sir.
Craig Schmidt - Merrill Lynch
Good morning. I was looking at your portfolio statistics by
country page and the United States has the lowest average rent per square foot
relative to Canada, Mexico and Chile. I wondered if that was because of the age
of the centers or is something else driving that statistic?
Milton Cooper
That’s the age of the centers. One of the sad realities is
that, we have been around for such a long time. We’ve been in business for 50
years, so that it distinguishes us — many of the properties I mentioned were
built in the ’60s, ’70s, ’80s, and acquisitions, so that it’s a factor of the
age of the center, and that they’re encumbered with long-term leases at lower
rents.
B>Dave Henry
And as we’ve mentioned previously, in Mexico, it’s mostly a
development game. These are new shopping centers coming on stream. The existing
inventory of shopping centers to buy in Mexico is very limited.
Craig Schmidt - Merrill Lynch
So, if I’m thinking about this correctly, it would seem to
suggest that the United States has the best opportunity for growth relative to
the four countries you primarily do business in.
B>Dave Henry
I would argue the opposite. If you look at the U.S. leases
for new properties, you are talking about very flat leases. For instance, when
we sign a Home Depot lease today, it is flat for 20 years, and sometimes flat
for the option period.
When, we sign a Home Depot lease in Mexico, we have possible
increases every single year and in some cases we have percentage rent. So, it
depends on the country and the lease structures.
Mike Pappagallo
I think your point is that on the older properties, there is
more room for growth because those rents are lower. Dave, is right on the newer
acquisitions. On the old properties, we do have below-market rents.
Craig Schmidt - Merrill Lynch
Thank you. That’s helpful understanding that Home Depot
signs different types of leases by country.
Dave Henry
Yes, it depends on where they are trying to grow. For
instance, we get very different leases from Wal-Mart in Mexico than we do in
the U.S. In the U.S. they like to own their own property.
That’s very difficult to lease a Wal-Mart in the U.S. Whereas
in Mexico, where they are tripling the number of stores they want to open, by
definition, they are forced to lease in many cases.
Craig Schmidt - Merrill Lynch
Thank you.
Operator
And we’ll take our next question with Matt Ostrower with
Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Matt Ostrower - Morgan Stanley
Good morning. Could you talk about why you chose to use the
preferred market instead of the unsecured market, and specifically was it an
issue with rate or covenants there? And secondarily, at a 7.75% rate on the
preferred, isn’t that really signaling that you guys have an expectation that
cap rates are going to move up very significantly given the kind of going-in
yield you need to get to make that accretive?
Milton Cooper
We elected to go into the preferred market, because we
wanted to put a form of longer term or permanent equity on the balance sheet,
in that we felt that for an additional 100 basis points or so relative to what
we could do at the tenure at the time that it was well worth it.
And it would build capacity in the future for further
expansion on the debt side. And along with our preferred equity offering as I
mentioned, we have done a variety of other things to expand the debt capacity.
So in very basic terms, we viewed the preferred as one
element of a global capital structure, and liquidity enhancement, and did not
look at it in the view of issued this in lieu of unsecured debt and the like.
As to your other point, that assumption or that theory is just simply not the
case.
Mike Pappagallo
As we pointed out before, Matt, where we are investing most
of our own capital is places like Mexico and preferred equity in development,
where we do get higher returns, and it is accretive to our shareholders. When
we buy existing shopping centers, we are teaming up with an institutional
partner who is putting up the lion’s share of the equity.
And we make very good returns because in addition to our
share of the cash flow from the property, we are getting management fees, and
asset management fees, and acquisition fees, and construction management fees,
and leasing conversions, and a promote — and so forth. So it’s actually a very
profitable piece of business for us.
Matt Ostrower - Morgan Stanley
And if I could just follow-up real quick on the unsecured,
were you able — I know a little while back, you switched to sort of a
covenant-light structure on a whole bunch of your unsecured debt.
And I guess the question I have is would you be able to get
that today if you did go into the unsecured market today? And if the answer to
that is no, what does it mean for the money that you spent or the cost you
incurred to get the covenant-light structure on your existing debt?
Mike Pappagallo
We feel that if we wanted to go into the unsecured markets
today, we feel we could execute a bond with a similar characteristic as we
raised in April.
Matt Ostrower - Morgan Stanley
Great. Thank you.
Operator
And we’ll take our next question with Michael Gorman with
Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.
Michael Gorman - Credit Suisse
Good morning. Milton, if you could just go back to the
distressed side of things again but more looking at the opportunities, can you
sort of quantify what kind of pipeline of deals you’re looking at on the
alternative investment front?
Milton Cooper
What we’re looking at is — it’s really very large. What
we’ll get is so speculative it wouldn’t be fair for me to answer it. It might
be misleading. So I don’t know. We’re looking at an awful lot. What will
happen, I don’t know.
Michael Gorman - Credit Suisse
If you look back at the history, then what is your typical
conversion rate of what you look at versus what you get?
Milton Cooper
I’m going to guess, maybe a third of or less.
Michael Gorman - Credit Suisse
And.
Milton Cooper
And it varies.
Michael Gorman - Credit Suisse
And, Dave, just a question on the Prudential joint venture,
going back to the questions about cap rates and institutional demand, it looks
like the sales volume in the third quarter slowed down. Can you just give us a
sense for what the pricing was like on those deals, and also any number of
deals that may have fallen through during the quarter?
Dave Henry
Well it’s — I think we have mentioned before, the Pan
Pacific acquisition with Peru was really divided in two portfolios. A whole
portfolio and a self portfolio. On the self portfolio, Tom, correct me if I’m
wrong, was about $1 billion.
We are about halfway through that self portfolio, and we
continue to sell those properties, which by definition are properties that we
have decided not to hold long- term. The markets have been turbulent, I would
say, and the Cap rates have been a little higher than we had hoped, but we
continue to feel that we will dispose of that, the rest of that portfolio, over
this next 12-month period.
On the other side of the coin, the whole portfolio, the
other $3 billion, has outperformed what we thought, and the rent growth has
been outstanding in these A-plus properties in California.
So, we have been very happy with the whole buckets, and the
sell bucket is going perhaps a little slower than we had hoped.
Michael Gorman - Credit Suisse
If I could just push a little bit there, I mean, last
quarter you characterized it as 6.25% — that’s 6.75% on the sale. Are you
still in that range with your third quarter sales, or are we talking north of
that?
Michael Gorman - Credit Suisse
Yes, I think we’re still in the probably 6.5% to 7% range.
It just depends on the property and the location and where it might be. And one
of the other things that we have been doing with the sale bucket is some of the
properties we actually held off the market while we released them.
If we had big anchors, we just held them off, and we’re
bringing them to the market now so.
Dave Henry
And it’s no surprise the best ones of the sell bucket go
first. So, we fully expect that for the last batch of these assets that the cap
rates are going to be higher.
I mean, in effect the blended Cap rate, when we underwrote
this portfolio, was a little north of 6.5%. And I think when the dust settles;
we’ll be roughly to that number. But certainly, as it relates to the timetable
of doing that, the best assets on that sale bucket have gone first, and the
tougher ones are going to bring up the rear.
So that will certainly — there will certainly be different
Cap rates as you go through these individual sales.
Michael Gorman - Credit Suisse
Thanks, guys.
Operator
We’ll take our next question with Michael Mueller with
JPMorgan. Please go ahead.
Michael Mueller - JPMorgan
Couple of questions, first, Mike, in terms of guidance,
should we think of the preliminary ‘08 number as kind of just a levered core
growth rate with, I think you said, maybe a $30 million year-over-year increase
in capital services. So, not a lot of external-driven spread in the numbers at
that point.
Mike Pappagallo
Mike, I think — Just rephrase the question for me. Because
I understand one of the points you are making was with respect to the basket of
our operating businesses, but maybe if you could just rephrase your question,
so that I could give you a coherent answer.
Michael Mueller - JPMorgan
Yes. I guess, first, you said, just confirming what you
said. KIMCO Capital Services, about $30 million, you were thinking, higher than
the ‘07 level. So, if we are taking your core growth and levering that up, and
just tacking that on, that kind of gets you around to where the midpoint of ‘07
to midpoint of ‘08 is.
So, is that the right way we should be thinking about the
‘08 implied guidance at this point?
Mike Pappagallo
We’ll probably assume a bit more KDI gains than the current
year’s $25 million. There will be more projects that are in their completion
phase or going to be completed in early ‘08, so I think there will be a little
bit more activity there.
And then you will certainly have to factor in that
estimation of volume, some level in some business lines, but also increase the
earnings.
So, I think it’s really a combination of that increase in
the operating business that I talked to you about, an increase in the
development profits, some volume activity, as well as the leveraged internal
growth of 54%.
So, that’s in broad terms, the four components that drive
the numbers for next year, midpoint-to-midpoint.
Michael Mueller - JPMorgan
Okay. Maybe switching gears to the preferred equity
business, can you talk about recent trends in pricing since — given what has
been happening with the debt markets over the past quarter or so, as pricing
moved back up?
And then second part of that question, if you are looking at
the $200 million of equity kickers that I think you mentioned on the call, how much
of that is split between stuff driven just by pure Cap rate compression versus
stuff that wasn’t necessarily reliant upon Cap rate compression?
It really just comes from the value creation from taking a
project from development to stabilization.
Mike Pappagallo
Sure. On the pricing side today, it’s definitely a much
better time for us. Some of our traditional mess, composition, I would call it
straight mess. We’re charging an interest rate without an equity kicker.
Those guys have all gone away for the moment, and so our
team is starting to see more opportunities with better pricing and more
conservative underwriting on our part.
So, we’re actually pretty optimistic about our preferred
equity business going into next year, and we think we’ll benefit from the
turmoil that’s happened in the credit market. Some of the crazy risk-reward
pricing has gone away.
So we think we’ll do better in terms of volume in preferred
equity both in Canada and the U.S., which are both good markets for us. In terms
of the equity kicker estimates, we have taken a look at some of them. I don’t
statistics on the whole portfolio for you, but if I were to guess, it would be
half is cap rate compression and half is growth in net income.
Michael Mueller - JPMorgan
Okay. Okay. Great. Thank you.
Operator
We’ll take our next question with David Harris with Lehman
Brothers. Please go ahead.
David Harris - Lehman Brothers
Hey, good morning. Sorry if I missed this. Dave, as you were
picking up your air miles traveling north and south, down the Americas, I
wonder if you could just give any comment as to any change in the investment
attitude of folks in the marketplace in Canada or down in Mexico in South
America?
Are people concerned in those markets about changing cap
rates and financing? And secondarily, somewhat associated with that, is there
today a more of a reserve and a caution about tenants signing up for space than
there would have been, say, three, six months ago?
Dave Henry
Let me take them in three parts. Looking at Latin America
first and I’m very proud, because American Airlines did give me a little
certificate saying I have hit three million miles with them. So I’m very proud
of that.
David Harris - Lehman Brothers
(inaudible) of the plane, doesn’t it?
Dave Henry
The investor appetite to invest in Mexico and South America
is actually escalating and increasing. Real estate investors are looking for
higher returns, given the turmoil of today and the apprehension about where the
real estate markets in the U.S. are going.
So the investor appetite, to look at markets like Mexico and
South America, is escalating, and you can see that in the number of new funds
that are being offered. Everybody from JE Roberts to O’Connor to ING to
Prudential, they are all offering Latin America funds of one type or another an
increasingly oriented towards retail, which is hard.
And as Milton mentioned in his remarks, we’re seeing more
competition in Mexico and more competition for our operating partners, and so
forth. We have such a great lead in Mexico and we have such established deal
flow that we think we’ll do rather well, but if anything, I would say it has
escalated in terms of investor activity.
Canada is a different matter. Canada, the debt turmoil has
definitely impacted. CMBS is out of business, for sure, in Canada, and
historically Canadian banks have always been rather conservative.
So I’d say there is a little more apprehension about what is
going to happen in Canada than perhaps the Latin America. Your last part of
your question in terms of the tenants, again, if anything, the Home Depots and
the Wall-Marts, and the Costco’s of the world are increasingly looking at
Mexico and South America as opportunities for growth.
Best Buy and Lowe’s have both announced going to Mexico
recently. So, if anything, that also is accelerating.
David Harris - Lehman Brothers
If you just think about the discussions you’re having today
with potential joint venture or around new joint ventures and funds, is there
any change in the fee structure promotes that you’ve been traditionally putting
in place over the last couple of years? And I guess that is probably more
focused domestically than overseas.
Dave Henry
Well, again, the fee structure today is very different than
it was five years ago, and much more attractive for the operator for our side
of the equation. We really haven’t had a lot of pushback on fee structures,
especially things like our Mexican land and retail fund.
The investors are really looking at that wonderful
opportunity to drive double-digit IRRs for themselves. So promote structures
are really not that, no that controversial and our fees are, we keep them on
the modest end. We’re not a hedge fund. We’re not even an opportunity fund in
many cases in terms of our fee structure.
So as you look at our funds, our fee structures are very
reasonable and we don’t get a lot of pushback.
David Harris - Lehman Brothers
Is the typical threshold 9 or 10?
Dave Henry
Yes, I would say that’s fair. In the US, in some cases it’s
lower, and in Mexico and Latin America, it may be higher.
David Harris - Lehman Brothers
Okay. Great. Thank you.
Operator
We’ll take our next question with Lou Taylor with Deutsche
Bank. Please go ahead.
Lou Taylor - Deutsche Bank
Thanks. Dave, can you just go back to the acquisition
activity you should think and talk about
Dave Henry
Lou, you are going to have to speak up little bit.
Lou Taylor - Deutsche Bank
Yeah. Can you just go back to the acquisitions commentary
earlier, and just talk a little bit about your return expectations? Have your
IRRs risen at all?
Dave Henry
You mean on our side of the equation?
Lou Taylor - Deutsche Bank
Yes.
Dave Henry
On our side of the equation, remember, we’re investing 15%
to 20% of the equity on a co-investment basis with our institutional partners.
So, in addition to the levered or un-leverage return from the property, which
may be 6%, 7%, 8%.
We are getting property management fees, we’re getting
acquisition fees, we’re getting asset management fees, and so forth, which
drives those returns somewhere between 15% and 20% over time.
Lou Taylor - Deutsche Bank
I mean, on your consolidated on-balance sheet acquisitions
that you do on your free flow account.
Mike Pappagallo
As general matte, Lou, we’re generally not acquiring for our
own balance sheet anymore for those very reasons. Now, that said, the growth in
the balance sheet at any one point in time will generally be due to two things.
One, that we do continue to take on inventory in anticipation of the placement
into those programs, and there certainly is that phenomena in our current
balance sheet.
And secondly, there are assets on what is called the
opportunities side, where we’re going direct, because we see an arbitrage
opportunity. Of course, the example is some of the things we’ve done in Lower
Manhattan, as well as some of the most recent investments in the Philadelphia
metro markets. And those assets are on the books.
There’s a high IRR, 15%, 20%, and beyond if we can execute
on our strategy, and those assets are on our balance sheet as well. At this
point you think about on-balance sheet, that’s primarily what we’re focused on.
Lou Taylor - Deutsche Bank
As a follow-up, in terms of your merchant development
pipeline, in terms of cap rate on those dispositions, if you will, have you
seen any movement in those cap rates?
Dave Henry
Jerry, I’ll let you answer, but we only have a few
properties that are in the market today. There is a good list of people bidding
on these properties, and I would say that the bid/ask is a bit wider than it
has been in the past.
But we have sold properties and continue to sell properties
in the 6’s that we developed in the 10% to 11% on leverage return on cost. So
the profit margin is still pretty wide in development, and we like that
business. It’s a got room, if necessary, for cap rates to move up a bit.
Jerry Friedman
Dave, you are correct. We have — All of our properties have
been selling in the 6’s in the cap rates, the ones we have marketed. And there
is aggressive — several bidders for all of the properties.
Lou Taylor - Deutsche Bank
Okay. Thank you.
Operator
(Operator Instructions) And we’ll go next with David Fick
with Stifel Nicolaus. Please go ahead.
David Fick - Stifel Nicolaus
Yes, good morning. Can you talk a little bit about your
external partner relationships, and what you are seeing in terms of them
approving deals, where we’re hearing from some of your peers that there’s more
pushback on proposed transactions?
Milton Cooper
I think it’s fair to say that core investors have taken a
hard look at the markets today, and are being careful about what they are going
after. They are taking a look at the credit markets. They are trying to
carefully price transactions. They are working with us.
They want to know what we think is going to happen with
pricing. They want to understand carefully the upside of properties as we work
with them in looking at opportunities. The same way we are.
We’re not exactly sure where these markets are going to
shake out. So we’re both being very careful as we look at opportunities. I
think that’s fair. But whether it shakes out with cap rates being a little
higher, or it settles back down to where it was, we’ll just have to see.
But we do have great relationships and a great roster of
partners that we continue to work with looking at all kinds of opportunities,
whether they are large portfolios or one-off transaction.
David Fick - Stifel Nicolaus
How big a factor is that external appetite in your external
acquisition guidance, which is obviously pretty conservative?
Milton Cooper
Yes, Mike has made a very conservative number, so it’s our
job, Tom and mine and others, to beat that number.
David Fick - Stifel Nicolaus
Okay. Thank you.
Milton Cooper
Sorry for giving them such a low bar, David. I’m going to
rethink it.
Operator
And we’ll take our next question with Scott O’Donnell with
MetLife. Please go ahead.
Scott O’Donnell - MetLife
Yes. Hi. Good morning. A question for Milton, please.
Milton, you have been around a long time, you have seen many financial crises
in the past, and whatever the flavor of financial crisis, you can always point
to the root of it being poor underwriting.
And I guess in that context, whether you are looking at the
financial sector or the REIT sector, they do share several characteristics over
the last few years. It seems that people are paying too much for assets,
they’re financing more and more of these risks off-balance sheets, and they are
trying to generate returns that may not be sustainable in the long run.
So with that as a background, can you comment on the
appropriateness of, and also in the context of Mike’s earlier comments that
more and more of KIMCO’s balance sheet will be represented by joint venture
investments, can you comment on the appropriateness of being an unsecured
lender to a company like KIMCO from an underwriting perspective?
Milton Cooper
Well, let’s analyze that for a moment. One, the ratio of
debt to total debt and equity is very, very small, and we have kept it that way.
Two, the portfolio is a portfolio that has pretty solid income streams. And
three, you have a very conservative management, who have their lifeblood,
estates and wealth in KIMCO.
So the combination of all of that factor, diversified
sources of income, since so many sources and geographic sources, it makes it as
good a bed as I know. And if I’m comfortable with the equity, I would imagine
that unsecured lenders should be very comfortable with the debt.
Scott O’Donnell - MetLife
Thanks. Okay.
Barbara Pooley
Daryl?
Operator
And there are no further questions. This does conclude our
question-and-answer session. I like to turn it back over to management for any
additional or closing remarks.
Barbara Pooley
Thanks, everybody, for participating today. Just a remind, a
supplemental is on our website at www.kimcorealty.com. Thanks.
Operator
And once again, ladies and gentlemen, this will conclude
today’s conference. We thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.
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